This document estimates the potential change in glyphosate volumes with the introduction of Roundup Ready maize in Europe. It outlines assumptions for modeling, including a maximum 50% adoption rate of Roundup Ready traits by 2020 and average use of 4.5 liters of Roundup per hectare in Roundup Ready maize fields. The model predicts that even at a 50% trait penetration, only 22% of total glyphosate use would be in Roundup Ready maize by 2020, with the majority still used in conventional agriculture.

1. Estimation of the Change
of Glyphosate Volumes
as a Consequence of the Introduction of
Roundup Ready® Maize in Europe
Dr Norbert Muelleder
23 March 2010
Monsanto International SA

2. Development of Roundup Quantity in RR Maize (I)
• Base assumptions for modeling*
– EU 27 glyphosate total market size is hard to determine
– Glyphosate use in EU 27 continues to slowly increase due to
discontinuation of other active ingredients
– EU 27 planting approval for RR maize is granted in 2011
– RR trait adoption by EU 27 farmers (including stacks) till 2020 will
be max. 50 % of EU hybrid corn market
– max. registered Roundup rate in RR maize is 6 l/ha (2160 g ae) per
cropping season, average total use in RR maize will be 4.5 l (1620
g ae)
– Roundup use in RR maize replaces 10 % of glyphosate applications
in the crop rotation
* As for all models, this summary is based on estimates, which may or may not reflect the real future situation

3. Development of Roundup Quantity in RR Maize (II)
100%
90% Roundup use in RR corn
80%
70%
60%
50%
40% Glyphosate use in conventional agriculture
30%
20%
10%
0%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Based on the model, even at 50 % trait penetration in 2020, only 22 % of total glyphosate is used in RR maize

4. in case you are curious: this is just a white whole
NK 603 launch in Europe – June 2008 - NM